Clemson's path to the CFP without an ACC Title
What needs to happen ahead of Clemson for the Tigers to have a shot, PLUS Doomsday Potato Clock and we may have our Ultimate Brayden
Correction: An old version of this newsletter, I incorrectly listed BYU’s game this weekend as being against Kansas. The Cougars will be playing Arizona State. The editor responsible for correcting my mistakes has been fired. Furthermore, his family has been notified of his failure.
It is looking increasingly likely like the Clemson Tigers will miss another College Football Playoff (CFP) this year. Their odds were looking pretty good until dropping a game to Louisville three weeks ago. Now they need a lot to happen to have a chance to get into the CFP, and even more if they want to make it into the CFP without winning the ACC Championship Game.
As it sits, Clemson has a 18% chance of making the CFP, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor. If they manage to win the ACC Championship Game, that jumps to 97%. Right now, it’s more likely that Clemson loses a game than either of the teams ahead of them in the ACC, so let’s consider the case that Clemson wins out but misses the championship all together.
How your Clemson Tigers make it in to the CFP
Let’s start by looking at the probability of winning out (using ESPN’s win probability metric) for some of the teams ahead of or near Clemson in the Playoff Committee’s latest rankings.
As of Week 13, Clemson sits at No. 17 in the Playoff Rankings, meaning they need to leapfrog 5 teams to have a shot at being picked. Unfortunately, most of the teams ahead of Clemson have a better chance of winning out that Clemson does (for reference, every team above South Carolina is ahead of Clemson).
Let’s start with the most obvious team to get bounced from contention: Texas A&M. If you read the ABD, you’ll know that Texas A&M shouldn’t even be here. But that doesn’t matter, if the Aggies get boat raced by the Longhorns and that’ll be that.
One down.
Next up is the BYU Cougars (yes, I skipped Indiana, hold on a sec). The Playoff Committee hasn’t been impressed with BYU at all this year; they were undefeated going into last weekend and still were only ranked No. 6. If the Cougars lose to Arizona State this weekend, that would effectively put a wrap on the season. I can’t see the Committee falling in love with a 2 loss team they didn’t respect when they were undefeated.
Two down.
Now we have Colorado. Would Deion coaching in the Playoff be a huge draw? You bet. And you can also bet that that will be taken into consideration. If the Buffs lose to Kansas this week, however, it’s likely curtains for Coach Prime and Shadeur.1 They can still make the Playoff, though, in theory, if Iowa State and Arizona State each lose a game.
Three away.
Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss lose to Florida this weekend. Look. It isn’t likely. But what if I put it to you this way: Lane Kiffin needs a win, on the road, in one of the toughest stadiums to play in, against a Florida team that is playing like they want Billy Napier to stick around (i.e., hard, if not well), after already losing to 6-loss Kentucky and underwhelming LSU, both of whom lost to Florida by double digits.
Four.
This brings us to the last thing that needs to happen, and I need you to understand that this is my favorite scenario. I love it so much I want it to happen, even if Clemson doesn’t make it to the Playoffs.
Indiana.
Now, you might say, “But Sean, you brilliant and handsome devil, you, the Hoosiers are undefeated. How are they going to lose two games?” Here’s what happens. Indiana gets absolutely destroyed by Ohio State. I’m talking nobody even remembers how well you did in the first ten games destroyed. Then, Ohio State loses to Michigan, allowing Indiana to grab a spot in the Big Ten championship against Oregon. And then, like a PTSD induced flashback, the Ducks vaporize what’s left of the Hoosiers’ soul and then the entire campus turns to basketball.
All that happens, and Clemson is in.
QED
The Honorable Shawn M. Regis, IV Memorial Reality Check
Clemson loses to South Carolina.
Doomsday Potato Clock
You aren’t going to believe this, but ABD favorite New Mexico pulled off an incredible come from behind win to upset No. 22 Washington State last week. In doing so, the Lobos kept their Bowl Eligibility alive and checked off the toughest win remaining on their schedule. Check out this in-game win probability from ESPN:
After a bye week, New Mexico travels to Hawaii to take on Brayden Schager (who will be coming off a “minor” knee injury). It’s never easy to win in Hawaii, and I’m not sold that the Lobos will do it. Let’s hope that Devon Dampier can minimize his turnovers and continue being the beautiful agent of chaos that he is. If not, Hawaii will be the end of their season.
Best Brayden
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi put up a solid performance, short on numbers that will wow you. He was 14-17 for 197 yards and a touchdown. He even tacked on an additional receiving touchdown, just to rub it in Brayden Schager’s slumping face. The Rainbow Warriors’ quarterback continued his slide, throwing three picks on only 19 passes for 124 yards.
With that, BFN pulls even with one additional game in hand. Hawaii has a bye in Week 13, so BFN will go up one,2 setting up a winner take-all Week 14 Best Brayden showdown.
Keep in mind that Brayden Schager currently holds the tie-breaker on account of him not shit-talking Travis Hunter in a game he [Schager] was losing.
BFN - 6
B.S. - 6
Congrats on the Shrine Game, by the by.
Barring injury or a putrid performance.